Case Studies
A number of case studies have been undertaken to demonstrate how complex problems can be analysed using Simulacron.
- Influenza outbreak at the Royal Naval School, Greenwich. This study of the 1920 outbreak was chosen because it was an example where the movement of pupils and teachers from education records and the layout of the school was known. This allowed a test of the infection model and related refining programs.
- Smallpox outbreak in Abakaliki, Nigeria. This study of the outbreak in 1968 was used to calibrate the smallpox infection model for studies of biowarfare. This outbreak involved the hiding of people with smallpox from the authorities in a semi-enclosed community.
- SARS outbreak at Amoy Gardens, Hong Kong. This study was used to test the multivector component of the infection model. The two infection models used were person to person infection spread and aerosol particle spread via air exhaust and intake to the building.
- A simultaneous smallpox and plague outbreak. The study assessed the use of infection states to describe the potential interaction when two bioweapons are released on a synthetic community.
- Police interdiction of a terrorist attack. This study tested the ability of police to recognise and disable a terrorist in a population before the terrorist could reach their target for detonation.
- A hypothetical terrorist attack on Central Station, Sydney. In this study, a terrorist attacks Sydney Central Station. This tested two concepts: the ability of people who were perceptive to move away from the terrorist and the efficacy of evacuation strategies to clear the station.
- Lethality analysis of Central Station, Sydney. In this study, the effect of various attack and defence strategies were investigated by measuring both the attack's lethality and the impact of the defence measures on commuter flow.